2011 French Open Preview

As all of my posts so far this week have been about tennis and hockey, I just want to say that I will be posting two blogs this week on soccer (football depending what you like). One will be a recap for the European season 2010/2011, and the other will be a Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United. But for now, my preview for the ever interesting French Open:

Quarter-final predictions:
Top Quarter:
[1] Rafael Nadal vs [5] Robin Soderling
It looks as though Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling will play each other at Roland Garros for the 3rd straight year. Nadal has been given a tough early draw: Isner, Davydenko, Querrey, Verdasco would be draw that most would pray to get by, but for Nadal it should be a sufficient test early on to get him into good form. As for Soderling, the 2 time French Open finalist, he has a fairly easy draw until the QF, with none of Fish, Bahgdatis, or Gilles Simon being particularly adept on clay. Soderling has been a tough guy to bury in slams, and I expect him to force Nadal to play good tennis, but look for the King of Clay to push forward. If Nadal plays the game he has for most of this season, its hard to imagine Soderling having the time and opportunity to force Nadal off the court with his huge strokes.

Second Quarter:
[4] Andy Murray vs [11] Nicolas Almagro
By far the weakest of the top 4 on clay, Andy Murray couldnt have asked for a better draw on clay. If he had this draw 2 weeks later at Wimbledon, the names Milos Raonic, Alex Dolgopolov, and Troicki would rightly scare anyone, but none of these three have had much success on dirt. The only man to come within 2 points of defeating Djokovic this year has played well on clay this season and should ride his easy draw to the quarters, where I think he will meet clay specialist Nico Almagro. Almagro is no slouch on clay with 4 clay titles this year. When on his game, and when his powerful serve is in play, he is very tough to hold back. He is a strong ball striker, and he is very comfortable on the surface he grew up on. Expect him to take out last years semi-finalist Jurgen Melzer, who has lost 3 matches in a row since beating Roger Federer in Monte Carlo. Murray could easily beat Almagro, but ill take experience on the clay in Almagro

Third Quarter:
[3] Roger Federer vs [7] David Ferrer
Federer hasnt lost before the QF of a slam since the 2004 French Open... I expect that streak to hold. Lopez should pose a challenge, but I doubt Lopez, who has the worst backhand in the top 50, to be able to last on that wing for 5 sets. After that, there are some big hitters with little clay success like Tsonga and Tipsarevic and countryman Stan Wawrinka, who has beaten Federer on clay, but has lost fairly routinely every other time. David Ferrer is that guy you just hope wins. Hes a small guy, with incredible heart and fire. Hes got a very good draw with Monfils being the only player who has the ability to challenge David. Id expect Ferrer to make it through, especially since he has some rest coming into the tourney, having skipped Rome. Ferrer has the game to stick with Federer, but the only way he can take 3 of 4 from Roger is if Roger has an error prone game. Ferrer is a very good striker on clay, but beacuase of his stature, its very hard to keep up a high level of play for long period and is prone to lapses of serve and errors. If Federer comes to play, like I expect he will, he should advance.

Bottom Quarter:
[2] Novak Djokovic vs [19] Marin Cilic
Im going to make this one fast. De Bakker, DelPo, Gulbis, Belucci and Gasquet is an absolutely horrible draw, but if Federer, Murray and Nadal are 0-9 vs Djokovic this year these guys dont have a shot. As for Cilic, he gets in by virtue of me having to pick at least one unlikely QF. Berdych has been the weakest of the 5 - 8 seeds this clay season, and Cilic has a fairly similar game. Youhnzy didnt win a match in the 3 Clay Masters warmups, and journeyman Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has never made it past the 2nd round at Roland Garros

Semi-Finals:
[1] Rafael Nadal def. [4] Andy Murray
[3] Roger Federer def. [2] Novak Djokovic
When you read that last part your probably thought I just got back from the moon after a 5 month trip there, but im dead serious. I am partly bias against Djokovic, but I clearly remember the last time Roger Federer was this much of an after thought at a major -- the 2008 US Open, where he was perhaps the 4th favourite on paper coming in behind Rafa, Novak and Murray. Of course he won it. Logic would dictate he should lose easily to Djokovic, but since when has Roger Federer followed logic. My main reason for predicting this upset is that the courts in Rome and Madrid are very different from the Roland Garros courts. Only Monte Carlo (which Novak skipped) comes close to the slow pace of Paris. Djokovic was able to win Rome and Madrid because he was able to hit through the court and beat guys for pace. This will be much harder to do. Normally, this wouldnt change much, but I believe this is Federer's last real stand to show the world he is still in the competition for slams, and when Federer is motivated, yet feels no pressure its scary what he can do.

Final:
[1] Nadal def. [3] Federer
If Djokovic goes out before the final, Rafa is taking advantage. Outside of his losses to Djokovic, his last loss was at the Australian Open when he was visibly not 100% (leg injury) against Ferrer. I dont see that changing. Nadal's biggest weakness on clay this year has been his backhand, and Djokovic has been able to exploit that stroke because he changes the direction of the ball so well. Federer doesnt do that as well as Djokovic, so we will likely be treated to the usual Nadal forhand to Federer backhand game. If this happens, we all know how it will end.