Saturday, May 21, 2011

2011 French Open Preview

As all of my posts so far this week have been about tennis and hockey, I just want to say that I will be posting two blogs this week on soccer (football depending what you like). One will be a recap for the European season 2010/2011, and the other will be a Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United. But for now, my preview for the ever interesting French Open:

Quarter-final predictions:
Top Quarter:
[1] Rafael Nadal vs [5] Robin Soderling
It looks as though Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling will play each other at Roland Garros for the 3rd straight year. Nadal has been given a tough early draw: Isner, Davydenko, Querrey, Verdasco would be draw that most would pray to get by, but for Nadal it should be a sufficient test early on to get him into good form. As for Soderling, the 2 time French Open finalist, he has a fairly easy draw until the QF, with none of Fish, Bahgdatis, or Gilles Simon being particularly adept on clay. Soderling has been a tough guy to bury in slams, and I expect him to force Nadal to play good tennis, but look for the King of Clay to push forward. If Nadal plays the game he has for most of this season, its hard to imagine Soderling having the time and opportunity to force Nadal off the court with his huge strokes.

Second Quarter:
[4] Andy Murray vs [11] Nicolas Almagro
By far the weakest of the top 4 on clay, Andy Murray couldnt have asked for a better draw on clay. If he had this draw 2 weeks later at Wimbledon, the names Milos Raonic, Alex Dolgopolov, and Troicki would rightly scare anyone, but none of these three have had much success on dirt. The only man to come within 2 points of defeating Djokovic this year has played well on clay this season and should ride his easy draw to the quarters, where I think he will meet clay specialist Nico Almagro. Almagro is no slouch on clay with 4 clay titles this year. When on his game, and when his powerful serve is in play, he is very tough to hold back. He is a strong ball striker, and he is very comfortable on the surface he grew up on. Expect him to take out last years semi-finalist Jurgen Melzer, who has lost 3 matches in a row since beating Roger Federer in Monte Carlo. Murray could easily beat Almagro, but ill take experience on the clay in Almagro

Third Quarter:
[3] Roger Federer vs [7] David Ferrer
Federer hasnt lost before the QF of a slam since the 2004 French Open... I expect that streak to hold. Lopez should pose a challenge, but I doubt Lopez, who has the worst backhand in the top 50, to be able to last on that wing for 5 sets. After that, there are some big hitters with little clay success like Tsonga and Tipsarevic and countryman Stan Wawrinka, who has beaten Federer on clay, but has lost fairly routinely every other time. David Ferrer is that guy you just hope wins. Hes a small guy, with incredible heart and fire. Hes got a very good draw with Monfils being the only player who has the ability to challenge David. Id expect Ferrer to make it through, especially since he has some rest coming into the tourney, having skipped Rome. Ferrer has the game to stick with Federer, but the only way he can take 3 of 4 from Roger is if Roger has an error prone game. Ferrer is a very good striker on clay, but beacuase of his stature, its very hard to keep up a high level of play for long period and is prone to lapses of serve and errors. If Federer comes to play, like I expect he will, he should advance.

Bottom Quarter:
[2] Novak Djokovic vs [19] Marin Cilic
Im going to make this one fast. De Bakker, DelPo, Gulbis, Belucci and Gasquet is an absolutely horrible draw, but if Federer, Murray and Nadal are 0-9 vs Djokovic this year these guys dont have a shot. As for Cilic, he gets in by virtue of me having to pick at least one unlikely QF. Berdych has been the weakest of the 5 - 8 seeds this clay season, and Cilic has a fairly similar game. Youhnzy didnt win a match in the 3 Clay Masters warmups, and journeyman Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has never made it past the 2nd round at Roland Garros

Semi-Finals:
[1] Rafael Nadal def. [4] Andy Murray
[3] Roger Federer def. [2] Novak Djokovic
When you read that last part your probably thought I just got back from the moon after a 5 month trip there, but im dead serious. I am partly bias against Djokovic, but I clearly remember the last time Roger Federer was this much of an after thought at a major -- the 2008 US Open, where he was perhaps the 4th favourite on paper coming in behind Rafa, Novak and Murray. Of course he won it. Logic would dictate he should lose easily to Djokovic, but since when has Roger Federer followed logic. My main reason for predicting this upset is that the courts in Rome and Madrid are very different from the Roland Garros courts. Only Monte Carlo (which Novak skipped) comes close to the slow pace of Paris. Djokovic was able to win Rome and Madrid because he was able to hit through the court and beat guys for pace. This will be much harder to do. Normally, this wouldnt change much, but I believe this is Federer's last real stand to show the world he is still in the competition for slams, and when Federer is motivated, yet feels no pressure its scary what he can do.

Final:
[1] Nadal def. [3] Federer
If Djokovic goes out before the final, Rafa is taking advantage. Outside of his losses to Djokovic, his last loss was at the Australian Open when he was visibly not 100% (leg injury) against Ferrer. I dont see that changing. Nadal's biggest weakness on clay this year has been his backhand, and Djokovic has been able to exploit that stroke because he changes the direction of the ball so well. Federer doesnt do that as well as Djokovic, so we will likely be treated to the usual Nadal forhand to Federer backhand game. If this happens, we all know how it will end.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Who does Tyler Seguin think he is?

On this entry, I want to focus on Tyler Seguin, Boston Bruins rookie, and also a former classmate of mine. Obviously it has been a roller-coaster year for the 19 year old, going 2nd overall in the 2010 NHL entry draft to Boston, making the Bruins out of training camp as an 18 year old, scoring his first NHL goal in only his 2nd game, to a period of offensive and defensive struggles, and a few games as a healthy scratch. The end of his regular season was better for him, but because of deadline acquisitions like Chris Kelly and Rich Peverley, Seguin was forced to the press box for Boston's 1st two playoff series. But now, he has emerged as a star.

I went to school with Seguin for 3 years, and had a number of classes with him. To be blunt, he had the typical "Im going to the show, I can do what I want attitude". While he wasn't overly rude or bossy, he did project himself at times as thinking he was above everyone else. On the ice for my high school team, he did have the skills to back it up. He was easily the most impressive player on a team that included New York Ranger 2nd round pick Christian Thomas, 2011 draft prospect Joe Crammarossa, and OHL Sarnia Sting Captain Nathan Charliti. Of course he did end up in the show (a lot sooner than anyone thought) and after getting a quick talk with him last summer, he did seem a lot more mature.

So I just want to give my thoughts on what kind of player I think he will be. I think I am unbias when it comes to his game for while I want him to do well (so I can boast about being a former classmate), I am also a Leaf fan, and know what he is really like. Simply put, I think this kid has star player written all over him. Dont let his modest stats in the regular season fool you, this kid is a future star. The thing that I like most about his game is that he is so well rounded. Throughout Seguins junior career, he was always considered a passer first, and indeed thats what he is. However, he also has a real deadly wrist shot as shown by highlight reel goals on Ilya Bryzgalov, Henrik Lundqvist and Dwayne Roloson. In addition to his shot and passing skills, he is also a very able skater. While he doesn't have the raw speed of Taylor Hall or the strength on his feet as Jeff Skinner, he combines both attributes which enables him to skate by defenders, while having the ability to muscle through them at the same time. The one part of his game which he is currently lacking is positioning, something in his game which will naturally improve as he gains experience and more ice time per game.

In terms of Seguin's potential, I believe he has all the tools to become a 1st line center, who will peak at 90 points. However, unlike a Hall, Skinner or even a Tavares, I think he will bring more to the game than just points. He has the hockey awareness to become a very good two-way player, and being a centre, the ability to win face-offs (50% face-off winning % will only get better as he gets bigger). In terms of production next year, I expect him to stay on the wing for the majority of the time, taking Mark Recchi's spot in Boston's capable top 6, and should get quality minutes with a similar player in Patrice Bergeron. Look for Seguin to score 20 goals and get between 55 - 60 points. As a player who is still eligible for the World Juniors, these are very good stats.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Tennis Update: I hate Djokvovic

So, i've talked a lot about hockey so far, its time to get into tennis! So my favourite tennis player growing up was Andy Roddick, loved his serve, swagger, and his passion. Of course, at the moment Roddick is looking like a Challenger level player, and his annoying rants are becoming far more frequent and far less funny. So, I have essentially become a Nadal supporter full-time. I hate Djokovic for multiple reasons that I will get into.

Firstly, I just want to express my amazement, and disappointment on Djokovic's run in 2011. He is 37-0, with 7 of those wins being over Federer and Nadal. This is truly one of the best runs in tennis ever, as he has done things not even a prime Federer was able to do; beat everyone, including Nadal. Djokovic is playing amazing right now, he is as fit as ever, has matured a lot more (though he still screams like a beast) and his ball striking abilities are as good as ever. All that being said, Djokovic's perfect season is also occurring at a time when his fellow members of the "big four": Rafa, Federer and Andy Murray are all playing below their best. With Federer, its no secret that he is not the player he once was, mainly due to age, but both Murray and Rafa, aged 23 and 24 respectively are not playing as well as they did last year. While Rafa is still playing very good tennis, I have noticed that two key areas of his game are struggling: his backhand and his passing shots. Despite the fact his backhand was never his best shot, it was always a shot he could pull the trigger on in key moments to throw his opponent off (see Aussie 09 final). Lately however, especially on the clay, Nadal has begun to merely push of the backhand side, just playing it back into the court. For Nadal to be aggressive on his forehand, he needs to be more confident on his backhand so he doesnt have to run around it as much, sacrificing court position. His passing shots, one viewed as miraculous have lot a bit of their edge. If you watch Nadal in 2007 - 2009, you will notice that he passed players at the net so easily that players where scared to approach him. This is no longer the case, and while his passing shots are far from poor, he is no longer able to pull of the shots we expect him to make. Nadal is still good enough to compete and beat everyone sans Djokovic, but at their current levels, Rafa has no shot at beating the Serb.

So now on to why I dislike Djokovic. Firstly, I dislike the way he acts hurt or tired every time in a match when he is down. Exhibit A of this was his match against Murray in Rome. For the first time since late 2010, a man was a hold of serve away from beating for Djokovic. Oddly enough, for the first time in roughly the same period of time, fans saw Djokovic bending over between points, rubbing his legs, breathing heavily. My point here is that Djokovic acts tired and hurt almost every match where he is losing. While it could be proven that many players, if not all, do this, Djokovic takes it to an extreme. It especially ticks me off when he ends up winning that match, and shows no ill effects post-match. My best example of this was at the 08 US Open where Djokovic was pushed to 5 sets in the 4th round against Spaniard Tommy Robredo, a solid but hardly elite veteran. Djokovic saw the trainer countless time that match, and was seen bending down to catch his breath many times as well. Of course when he won the match there was none of that. In the very next round against my boy Roddick, he showed no ill-effects of his injury and won in 4 sets. After the match he would chirp Roddick and the fans, bringing me to my next point; he runs his mouth too much. Right from the time he was an up and comer, Djokovic has been known to run his mouth. At the 06 French Open as a tour rookie, he said "He was in control of the match" that he played against defending champion Nadal. For someone in control, the stats didnt show it. He was down 6-4, 6-4 before retiring. While he has toned down a bit, it still annoys me when I see him complaining and screaming on court in matches he shouldnt be. For example, in a match at the 2010 Rogers Cup against journeyman Victor Hanescu, Djokovic screamed loudly, banging his racquet after missing a forehand, that would have put the 1st set even more in his favour, even after he had the lead.

Simply put, I am not a fan of Djokovic, and while I acknowledge he is the man right now, I hope Rafa gets his act together to put Novak back in his place

Monday, May 16, 2011

Why I Love Hockey: 2011 NHL Playoffs

So today I want to talk about the NHL playoffs, which to me is better than the playoffs of the other 3 major American sports. Simply put the 2011 Playoffs have been nothing short of phenomenal. I will start by explaining why the NHL playoffs is so special to me, then talk specifically about this years playoffs.

Although it seems like I am this obnoxious, bias and extremely loyal hockey fan, I haven't always been this way. Being a Leaf fan, in the post-lockout era has not been easy, and because of this I began to lose interest in the game between 2007 and 2009. It got to the point where my own hockey game became worse and I considered quitting playing myself. Then came the 2009 NHL playoffs. It was this playoff season that rejuvenated my love for hockey because of the nail-biting 7 game series, the emerging rivalries which continue to shape the game, as well as the Cup final itself going down to the wire. Whether it be the unlikely run of the Carolina Hurricanes, upsetting the always potent New Jersey and the dynamic Boston Bruins, the emerging rivalry between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals or the continued dominance of the Detroit Red Wings (or Dead Wings as my mom likes to call them), the 09 playoffs had it all. When the 09 Playoffs began, I watched for the sake of watching, but by time it ended, I was so exhausted by the drama that it would seem like my favourite team was involved. This playoffs reminded me of why I grew up loving hockey.

The love affair with the NHL Playoffs continued the next year. Unlike the previous season, where the final few teams were fairly neutral to me, this time around, there was a clear team I was rooting for: the Montreal Canadiens. While it seems odd that a Leaf fan cheers for Montreal, it is the truth. Growing up in a home where both parents and siblings are Habs fans, I was forced to cheer for the Habs. Of course one of the top stories of the 2010 Playoffs was the run of the Canadiens, who upset the top regular season team the Caps, and the defending Stanley Cup champs the Penguins. What made the Habs run so amazing was that it was anchored by unlikely sources: NHL veteran of 2 regular season games prospect PK Subban, the teams backup to start the season Jaro Halak, undersized sniper Mike Cammalleri, and unheralded, unknown defensive defenseman Josh Georges. Their comeback against the Capitals in round 1 was one of the most remarkable comebacks I had ever seen. Then there was the Philadelphia storyline. The team who made it in the playoffs on the last day of the season was able to make the Cup finals, which included a comeback against Boston despite being down 3-0 in the series. Led by skilled sniper Danny Briere, tough as nails leaders Mike Richards and Chris Pronger, the playoffs also served as a coming out party for one of my favourite players, the smooth, yet gritty Claude Giroux. And of course, the playoffs was topped off by the Chicago Blackhawks, whose amazing core stole the show, and whose rather anti-climactic ending courtesy Patrick Kane will never be forgotten.

So then came this years playoffs, and I thought nothing could top the past two years. So far, I have been wrong. The First round of the playoffs were the best first round I have ever seen, and they included possibly the best First round series and best game ever. Of course I am referring to the Vancouver - Chicago series, the fierce 7 game war between the top team in the regular season against the defending Cup champs. After a dominating start for the 'Nuck's, Chicago's stars picked up the play and pushed the series to 7 games, by taking game 6 in OT. Game 7 was possibly the best game I have ever witnessed, on the same night when Montreal won in OT to force their series against Boston to go to 7 games, Vancouver and Chicago dueled into OT after Hawks captain Toews tied the game shorthanded, with minutes left. Though it was near 2am, and I had my toughest exam the next day, I could not take my face away from the screen, and after Burrows scored to take it, I couldn't focus for an hour. I was mind blown. I have seen many great hockey games but this definitely was up there. This alone could make a round great, but there was more. Montreal and Boston also fought in a tough 7 game series which ended in OT, the Habs speed and skills just falling short of the strength of Boston. The 2nd seeded Philly Flyers came from being 3 goals down in Game 6 to win in OT, to dominate game 7. The series between LA and San Jose also produced fireworks, 3 games out of the 6 going to OT, including game 3 where San Jose came from being 4-0 down in the 2nd to take it in OT. It says a lot about Round 1 that Round 2 was considered anti-climactic. This round was characterized by dominating stunning sweeps in the east, and grueling series in the West, which included San Jose and Detroit, which in any other year would be the top series of the post-season. But not this one, and there's still 2 round left to go.

Simply put, playoff hockey is something special. You can be down in a series, down late in a game, tied late in a game, and the best players dont shy away. Unlikely players step up (hi Joel Ward, Sean Bergenheim, Ben Smith), stars take over (sup Ryan Kesler, Pavel Datsyuk, Marty St. Louis) goalies stand on their heads (Pekka Rinne, Tim Thomas, Dwayne Roloson), and dirty goals are produced (Bobby Ryan you just killed it). This is truly why, I love hockey

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Hockey Update: The Toronto Maple Leafs

So on my first content blog, Im going to talk about the Toronto Maple Leafs. Sometime within the next week, I'll post my 2011 French Open Preview, as I especially want to talk about the miraculous season of Novak Djokovic. I also want to spend some time talking about the amazing 2011 NHL playoffs and the World Championships. But for now, the Leafs:

The 2010-2011 NHL season was bittersweet for the Toronto Maple Leafs. For the 6th straight season, and for 7th year in a row, playoff hockey did not come to the ACC. The Leafs also finished 21st in the NHL, meaning that our 9th overall pick in this years draft will go to the Boston Bruins as part of the Kessel deal. The Leafs also said goodbye to the last player to see playoff action in a Leaf uniform and 12 year Leaf vet Tomas Kaberle.

All that being said the season did give Leaf fans many reasons to be optimistic for the future. Firstly was the play of 23 year old James Reimer, who led the Leafs on an excellent run in the 2nd half of the season. Despite not recording a start until Jan 1st and playing only 37 games, Reimer had 20 wins, posting great stats with a 921 save % and a 2.60 GAA. This calm, mature, young man came out of no where to upseat both former Conn Smythe winner JS Gigure and Swedish sophmore Jonas Gustavsson as Leaf starter. If Reimer can play close to where he played down the stretch run, the Leafs have a shot at the playoffs.

Multiple Leaf prospects have also given Leaf fans a reason for hope. Former top 10 draft picks Luke Schenn and Nazem Kadri top the Leaf young core. Despite being only 21, Schenn has played in 231 NHL games, 2 World Championships, and this season led all NHL defenders in hits and was in the top 5 in blocked shots. While 20 year old Nazem Kadri didn't make the Leafs out of training camp, and spent much of the season in the AHL, he showed us brief glimpses of talent and skills that few players in the NHL can do. Displaying elite shootout skills, great hands, and offensive vision, Kadri showed Leaf fans that he has elements of a great player that you cannot teach. Look for him to establish himself as a full-time NHLer next fall. To supplement Kadri and Schenn, Leaf GM Brian Burke added to the prospect pool by acquiring former top 20 draft picks in Joe Colborne and Jake Gardiner through trade. Colborne played in the Leafs last game of the season and recorded an assist. Gardiner made the step up to the AHL at seasons end from the NCAA, and despite his lack of experience as regarded as one of the Marlies best D. The Leaf prospect pool also boasts NCAA Player of the year finalist Matt Frattin, German hockey Olympians Korbinian Holzer and Marcel Mueller. US WJC gold medalist Jerry D'Amigo, OHL All-Stars Jesse Blacker and Gregg McKegg

Finally, Leaf fans hope rests on the progression of Leaf players. Despite a weak team, the Leafs top scorer Phil Kessel reached the 30 goal plateau for the 3rd straight season, something only 16 other players in the NHL have done. His defensive play improves and set a career high in assists and points. Nikolai Kulemin also scored 30 goals, showed his potential as a solid two-way player. Late summer pick-up Clarke Macarthur was perhaps the best bang-for-buck summer acquisition setting career highs in all stats. Kulemin and Mac's centerman Mikhail Grabovski also had a great season, also setting highs in goals assists and points while showing great heart, effort and skill. The Legion of Doom, as they have been called, would no doubt be an elite 2nd line in the NHL next season. On defence, Leaf captain Dion Phanuef recovered from a rough season start and leg injury to end the season as one of the best in the league, especially after the Kaberle trade. Phaneuf began to show many glimpses of the player who was finalist for the Norris in 2008.

The Leafs still have a lot to do to become a solid Playoff contender, but Leaf GM Brian Burke has a great core, and lots of room to make that happen. He has begun to restore our draft stockpile, has about 20 million dollars in cap room to work with, and has shown the ability to make bold, but sensible trades. The future is bright for the Leafs!

The Inaugural Post

I sure hope there is spell check on this thing, else I will be in trouble. Anyways, hello blog world! Im Aaron Noronha, writing on Noronha's News. Most of my blogs will focus on sports. I am a huge sports fan, my favourite sports being hockey, tennis, and soccer. I also occasionally follow golf, american football, basketball and baseball.

First and fore-mostly, I am a Toronto Maple Leaf Fan! In the NHL I support all Canadian teams (minus the Sens). In tennis, my favourite current players are Andy Roddick, Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet. I am not a big Federer fan, but I especially hate Novak Djokovic. In the soccer world I support Manchester United and Real Madrid. My favourite players are Cristiano Ronaldo, Sergio Ramos, Ryan Giggs, and Nani.

Id like to give a shout out to the family of Derek Boogard, giving my condolences to them, after the New York Rangers enforcer was found dead in his apartment. Not the most talented player on the ice, but certainly one of the toughest. Got the chance to see him play live against the Leafs, and take out Leaf resident tough guy Colton Orr. A great guy off the ice, and certianly a guy who commanded attention on the ice. You will be missed Boogie!